Vince Holmes

4MR Draft Profiles – Patrick Surtain Jr.

NFL Draft

By: Vince Holmes

Patrick Surtain Jr. (#2)

6’2 202 lbs.

20 y/o University of Alabama

(Getty Images)

Games watched: vs LSU (‘19), vs Michigan (‘19), vs Georgia (‘20), vs Florida (’20), Ohio State (’20)

Summary: 

Arriving in Tuscaloosa as a highly touted recruit from Plantation, Florida, Surtain Jr. is the son of former NFL cornerback, Patrick Surtain Sr.

Basically a 3-year starter, Surtain Jr. finished his career with over 20 Pass break ups (“PBU’s”), 82 solo tackles, 4 INTs as well as 4 forced fumbles.

He finished his final season as the 2020 SEC Defensive Player of the Year, College Football National Champion (’20), First Team All SEC (’20), Unanimous All American (‘20), 2021 Rose Bowl Defensive Player of the Game.

Strengths:

  • Size and Length
  • Technique (always in phase)
  • Driving on the football
  • Can play both man and zone
  • NFL DNA

Weaknesses:

  • Tracking the ball at times
  • Can be too physical
  • Can lose the receiver while the ball is in the air

Conclusion:

After a deep dive into his tape, Surtain Jr. is even better than it seems on the surface. He’s patient at the LOS, uses his length to reroute receivers, he’s always “in phase” specifically on the fade route.

His ability to drive on the football and force PBU’s is special, having a father who played in the NFL seems to pay dividends for his game. Surtain Jr. is as polished as they come coming out of college.

I do however, have questions and intrigued to see how well he moves at his pro day, can he follow #1 receivers all over the field is another question mark.

A good showing at his pro day could move him into the top 5 of my big board. A special talent, Surtain projects to be a day 1 starter, and potential perennial All Pro/Pro Bowler.

Overall Grade: Gem

Week 5 Predictions vs. Atlanta Falcons – Gaining Momentum

Vince's Vindications

The Carolina Panthers enter Week 5 of the 2020 season riding a two game win streak. After an impressive win against an explosive Arizona Cardinals team in Week 4, the Panthers enter as favorites against a struggling Atlanta Falcons team. While the Falcons have played stints of really good football, they struggle to close football games. However the Panthers have had their struggles with the Falcons, last win dating back to 2017. Last win in Atlanta goes all the way back to 2014. I expect the Panthers to come out on top against an injury riddled Falcons team.

Panthers 30, Falcons 20 

Key Matchups

Panthers Receivers –  Facing a beat up secondary in Atlanta, I expect the Panthers to throw for a ton of yards on Sunday. Robbie Anderson has been a revelation for the Panthers, consistently making plays via the air. However, I expect DJ Moore to have the game Panthers fans have been waiting for. While he has been solid, I expect Moore to have a huge impact in Sunday’s matchup.

Players To Watch

Donte Jackson – Jackson has had his struggles against Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley. I’m eager to see how Jackson approaches this matchup. Usually boasting a chip on his shoulder I would bet Jackson knows the struggles he’s had in this matchup, particularly against Ridley. Dating back to his college career at LSU, Jackson has faced Ridley without a victory. A win on Sunday can go a long ways towards Jackson taking that next step up as a corner in this league. 

 

Derrick Brown – Brown has been nothing short of spectacular during this win streak by being disruptive and violent. He has been everything the Panthers coaches/front office wanted when they picked Brown 7th overall in the 1st round. Consistency is what I’ll be looking out for on Sunday. If Brown can be a disruptive force on a weekly basis, he will only make everyone else on this young defense better. Putting it all together to become a consistent menace for opposing offensive lines could put Brown in the discussion for best interior defensive lineman in the division.

Week 3 Predictions vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Vince's Vindications


By: Vince Holmes

A slow start to the Rhule Era of the Carolina Panthers to start the season. Untimely injuries and inconsistent play among other things have contributed to the Panthers 0-2 start for this season. While it hasn’t been all bad for the Panthers, the players have been able to compete enough to be in position to win both games. I predict more of the same for this young and inexperienced team and coaching staff. Here is why I believe the Panthers will fall short yet again despite putting forth a valiant effort.

Injuries

The 2019 NFL OPOY RB Christian McCaffrey has been put on IR for at least the next 3 weeks and facing a stout defense without your best player is always tough. McCaffrey has been the lifeline of the Panthers offense for the last 2 seasons and adjusting to life without McCaffrey will be tough against this stout Chargers defense. Final score prediction is:  Carolina 20 Los Angeles 24.

Key Matchups

RT Taylor Moton vs. the pass rush edge duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will be key if the Panthers want to win on Sunday. This matchup also is key for Moton off the field as he seeks his first long term deal. Handling Bosa and Ingram would be a good start to him getting a new deal.

Rookie QB Justin Herbert makes his 2nd NFL start against a struggling Panthers secondary. Herbert will be making his 2nd start but this week will be his first, preparing throughout the week as a starter. I expect Herbert to be confident and well prepared to spread the ball around to his weapons on Sunday and build off an impressive start from last week vs. the defending Super Bowl Kansas City Chiefs.

Players To Watch

Rookie RB Joshua Kelly has been impressive early in this season. A struggling Panthers run defense will have it’s hands full slowing him down and his running mate RB Austin Ekeler. Neutralizing both of these players should be priority #1 for Panthers defensive coordinator Phil Snow and company.

RB Mike Davis is getting the start for the Panthers. For the last two seasons the offense has run through McCaffrey. I’m interested to see how Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady uses Davis on Sunday and how that impacts the overall offense. If Davis can provide a semblance of a running game while contributing in the passing game, it bolds well for Brady and the offense to put up points on Sunday.

4 Man Rush Game Predictions: Week 1 – The Rhule Era

Vince's Vindications

A new era begins Sunday afternoon in Charlotte NC and there will be new faces all over Bank of America Stadium. With all the uncertainty and unfamiliarity surrounding the 2020 season, predicting the outcome seems almost impossible. However, I believe not having a preseason works in the Panthers favor on Sunday. The unorthodox off-season offers them an advantage over the visiting Las Vegas Raiders.

NO PRESEASON
Raiders head coach Jon Gruden has been around the NFL for decades now and he’s more than likely seen everything the league has to offer. However, COVID-19 leaves Gruden and his staff in a bind with little to no film of the Panthers and their new look schemes. Gruden has mentioned he’s opted to watch college film of both Matt Rhule and new offensive coordinator Joe Brady in order to be ready for this Sunday’s game. I don’t think it will be enough though due to Carolina jumping out to an early lead and able to hold off a late rally by Las Vegas.

Panthers 23  Raiders 20.

KEY MATCH-UPS
The Raiders boast a very good interior line of center Rodney Hudson, and guards Gabe Jackson and Richie Incognito. A newly revamped defensive front 7 for the Panthers will have their hands full getting to Derrick Carr and stopping running back Josh Jacobs. This is the biggest key to victory, limiting big plays in the pass game and stopping the running game in Week 1.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 
Rookie first round pick Derrick Brown will be key in trying to stop the Raiders run game. Carolina invested the 7th overall pick on Brown hoping he would put an end to the run game woes that plagued the Panthers in 2019. He will have veteran Pro Bowl DT Kawann Short returning from a Week 2 season ending shoulder injury from last season to help shore up the interior of the defense.

Raiders Tight End Darren Waller isn’t a house hold name. However, he’s one of the best players at his position in the league. Waller can line up all over the field causing match up problems for opposing defenses. The Panthers LB corps will look a little different without former All Pro Luke Kuechly in the middle, so limiting the effectiveness of Waller will be paramount in slowing down an explosive offense.

Post-Training Camp Thoughts: Preaching Patience

Vince's Vindications

A new era is among us with uncertainty, confusion and even anger from some fans not happy with the perceived direction of the franchise. It’s important to remember the Panthers haven’t won a playoff game since that glorious night of the NFC championship game of the 2015 season. A breathe of fresh air was needed for a franchise stuck in neutral. I must admit I was skeptical and pessimistic about some of the decisions my favorite franchise made over the past 8 months.

Allow me to explain my new found optimism and why reports and news out of training camp has me on board with direction of the 2020 Carolina Panthers and beyond…….

Golf-keeeper Image

  1. Offensive Weapons
    An explosive group of young weapons and arguably the best collection of skill players ever assembled here in Charlotte has me optimistic that the offense will be able to score with anyone in the league. Joe Brady has the best running back in football, an emerging star at receiver and one of the best deep threats in all of the league. I expect Brady’s influence and genius to pay dividends on all the talent at his disposal.
  2. Youth
    Studying Phil Snow’s defense in preparation to his arrival in Charlotte, I wrote down the two words to explain his defenses which is “Fast and Violent”. After going all defense in the 2020 draft, along with the departure of beloved veterans the Panthers have one of the youngest defenses in all of football. While that youth may show early on, I except steady improvement from a unit that won’t have much experience, but they will fly around and hit you in the mouth.
  3. New Four Man Rush
    Young talent along the defensive line was much needed on this team. Long gone are the days of Charles Johnson, Greg Hardy, Mario Addison, Jared Allen etc. A youth movement among the defense is here. Most importantly, along the defensive line, Panthers were able to grab my #2 overall edge defender from this years’ class in the 2nd round. Pairing Yetur Gross-Matos with first round pick Derrick Brown, the Panthers have a good young core to surround around 2019 1st round pick Brian Burns and seven year veteran Pro Bowler Kawann Short. Assuming this group continues to get better on a weekly basis, I fully expect this defensive front to be among the league’s best for years to come.Golf Bg Image