Archives for August 2019

Predicting the 53 Man Roster

Preseason, Prime Cuts with Norris

Carolina has a lot of tough choices ahead of them. A lot of guys played hard enough to make the team, but the Panthers can’t keep all of them. Here’s who should make the 53-man roster:

QB

Cam Newton

Kyle Allen

Will Grier

Tyler Heinicke

Explanation: While Heinicke made a lot of plays against Pittsburgh, it wasn’t enough to make the 53. Although, he should be on a team. Grier was a third round pick and will make the team. Side note: Cam’s rookie preseason was pretty bad, so don’t worry about Grier.

RB

Christian McCaffrey

Reggie Bonnafon

Jordan Scarlett

Cameron Artis-Payne

Elijah Holyfield

Explanation: Bonnafon showed enough in the preseason to earn a roster spot. Scarlett made the most of his opportunities.

FB

Alex Armah

WR

Curtis Samuel

DJ Moore

Jarius Wright

Torrey Smith

Chris Hogan

Terry Godwin

Aldrick Robinson

Jaydon Mickens

DeAndrew White

Andy Levrone

Rashad Ross

Damion Jeanpiere

Explanation: Picking the top 6 guys here. The only one on the bubble was Godwin, who made a case to stay in the preseason. It was between Godwin and Robinson, but Godwin played into a spot.

TE

Greg Olsen

Ian Thomas

Chris Manhertz

Cole Hunt

Jason Vander Laan

Temarrick Hemingway

Marcus Baugh

Explanation: This is an easy one. Keeping Manhertz as the third tight end, mirrors what they’ve done every year. Keeping Manhertz as a blocker will have a ton of benefits for the offense. We know he can catch passes from McCaffrey too. Thomas should be a big part of the offense this year, too. He was having a good camp until he got banged up.

OT

Taylor Moton

Greg Little

Daryl Williams

Explanation: All three (or four if you count Dennis Daley) tackles will make the team. Hopefully Little progresses enough to start and they can put Williams at guard. Having the best offensive line on the field is the goal.

G

Trai Turner

Greg Van Roten

Taylor Hearn

Dennis Daley

Kitt O’Brien

Brandon Greene

Rishard Cook

Tyler Catalina

Kofi Amichia

Explanation: Daley’s position flexibility gives him a roster spot. He showed a lot of promise this preseason at both guard and tackle. Carolina could also pick up another tackle after cuts, but Daley still makes the team. Taylor Hearn, on the other hand….And to be honest, Brandon Greene outplayed Hearn, so look for that too.

C

Matt Paradis

Tyler Larsen

John Yarbrough

Parker Collins

Expanation: Picking the top two players here. Larsen can also play guard in a pinch, since it’s his natural position.

DE

Mario Addison

Bruce Irvin

Brian Burns

Marquis Haynes

Christian Miller

Efe Obada

Brian Cox

Explanation: Picked the top six guys. Haynes played very well the preseason and fits in the 3-4 scheme very well. Obada played well in limited time. He bulked up this offseason, so he could have some looks inside. Miller is a first round talent. Once he gets more opportunities, he should showcase his ability.

DT

Gerald McCoy

Kawann Short

Dontari Poe

Kyle Love

Vernon Butler

Woodrow Hamilton

Bijhon Jackson

Explanation: McCoy, Short, Poe and Love were locks going into training camp, but Butler was on the bubble. Butler has slimmed down, looks stronger and faster and seems to be primed for a breakout season. With him playing some defensive end in the 3-4 scheme, he could play his way into another contract with Carolina.

LB

Luke Kuechly

Shaq Thompson

Jermaine Carter

Andre Smith

Jared Norris

Jordan Kunaszyk

Sione Teuhema

Antwoine Williams

Brandon Bell

Explanation: Even though Luke Kuechly is in danger of losing his roster spot, he should make the team. Joking aside, these were the top five linebackers in the preseason. Kunaszyk played well and had an interception last night, but it wasn’t enough to make the roster. Norris didn’t play well on defense, but he’s a valuable asset on special teams.

CB

James Bradberry

Donte Jackson

Javien Elliott

Ross Cockrell

Corn Elder

Kevon Seymour

Lorenzo Doss

Josh Thornton

Ryan Pulley

Explanation: Only keeping four corners because Carolina has to keep two kickers due to Gano’s injury. Seymour or Elder will likely be picked back up after Gano is played on IR.

S

Eric Reid

Tre Boston

Rashaan Gaulden

Colin Jones

Quin Blanding

Corrion Ballard

Damian Parms 

Explanation: Keeping the best four safeties on the roster. Carolina picking up Boston spelled the end for Blanding making the roster as my dark horse candidate.

ST

Michael Palardy

Graham Gano

JJ Jansen

Joey Slye

Explanation: Slye performed extremely well in the preseason. With Gano possibly going to IR for eight weeks, Slye makes the team. Gano has to start the season on the roster in order to be placed on IR. Jansen as a long snapper is as solid as they come.

Some of this could change if players get signed after final cuts, but this is how I see it shaking out.

A Closer Look at the Disappointing Performance From The Panthers O-Line

Will Call

In limited action, the Panthers first string offense struggled to move the ball in the dress rehearsal preseason game against the New England Patriots. In the first half, the Panthers managed to gain only 29 total yards of offense and at one point in the game, the team had more penalty yards than total yards of offense. A lot of the offensive struggles started up front.

On this first play, tight end Chris Manhertz who is normally a great blocker, gets beat off of the snap. The play has no chance from the beginning.

Left tackle Daryl Williams also had his struggles. On this play, he is working against rookie edge rusher Chase Winovich. Winovich is able to gain the leverage advantage against Williams, strike his hands inside between the numbers, and as a result, this allows him to execute an effective bull rush and drive Williams into the turf. On this play, you would like to see Williams have better timing and hand placement on his initial punch.

Williams struggled with the bullrush of Winovich on this play as well. Again, Winovich has the lower pad level, is able to make the more effective strike in between the numbers and this allows him to use that lower leg drive to push Williams into the quarterback.

Newly acquired center Matt Paradis also had his struggles. On this play he is working against veteran interior defensive lineman Michael Bennett. Bennett again gets the leverage advantage by maintaining that low pad level. In addition, Paradis fails to make an effective initial punch and allows Bennett to get his hands inside. As a result, Bennett is able to use his lower body strength to drive Paradis into to the quarterback, get a good grip on his jersey, and utilize this “push-pull” technique to shove him aside.

The run blocking from the Panthers offensive line could also use some improvement. On this outside zone play, right tackle Taylor Moton and right guard Trai Turner allow the defenders to gain that leverage advantage by maintaining a lower pad level. As a result, both Moton and Turner get stood up, and allow the Patriots to make the play in the backfield.

Overall, the Panthers will need better play up front as games are won and lost in the trenches.

 

-Will Harris

Cam Newton Injury Makes Case to Keep Starters Out of Preseason

Preseason, Prime Cuts with Norris

So…..Here we are again. Another preseason game, another injury. Cam Newton has a left ankle injury that he sustained late in the first quarter. Cam got hurt on a coverage sack while scrambling to try and keep the play alive. When Cam got up limping, you could almost hear every Panther fan’s heart sink. It begs the question, should franchise players play in the preseason?

For the most part, all players get an opportunity to play in these preseason games, including starters. The starters generally play no more than a half in any preseason game. It seems like more and more starting caliber players get hurt each year in preseason action. Yes, it’s good for starters to play and become a cohesive unit. However, it isn’t necessary to put your franchise players in harm’s way.

Yes, injuries happen. Especially in a gladiator sport such as football. If a player is going to get hurt, it should be in a game that means something. The risk far outweighs the reward.

Cam Newton and Greg Olsen are coming off of injuries that required surgery. These two players have worked hard to get healthy enough to play for the Panthers and shouldn’t be in a meaningless game such as this. These players are professionals and will be ready for the regular season no matter what. The preseason should be designated for rookies and players trying to make the team. The franchise players for NFL teams shouldn’t be playing in games that mean nothing.

DIVISION RIVALRIES: Saints

Prime Cuts with Norris

The Panthers and Saints have one of the biggest rivalries in all of football. Hate runs deep between the two teams, and the rivalry has been heated from the very start. Both Carolina and New Orleans have been in the same division since Carolina’s inaugural year in 1995. From 1995-2001, the Panthers were in the NFC West division, where New Orleans had been since 1970. In 2002, both teams went to the newly formed NFC South, where the rivalry continued.

The Saints and Panthers have played in 48 regular season games and Carolina leads the series 25-23. This has also been a close series regarding total points scored, as Carolina has scored 1,065 and New Orleans has scored 1,031. The Panthers have swept the Saints six times, in 1996, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2012 and 2015. The Saints have swept The Panthers five times, in 2000, 2001, 2010, 2011 and 2017. The Saints also beat the Panthers in their only playoff meeting during the 2017-18 season.

NFC WEST

The first meeting between the Panthers and the Saints came on October 22nd, 1995 at Clemson University, where Carolina played their first season. The Panthers came away with the victory that day, due mainly to Carolina’s defense intercepting Jim Everett four times. The Panthers’ defense was led by Brett Maxie with 2 interceptions, Bubba McDowell with 1 interception and Sam Mills with 1 interception. After winning the first game, New Orleans went on to win 8 out of the next 13 games. It should be noted that Panthers’ Hall of Honor member, Wesley Walls, played for the Saints in 1995. These two teams would have a lot of battles throughout their years in the NFC West, but it wouldn’t hold a candle to what had yet to come.

NFC South 2002-2010

In 2002, the NFL realigned the divisions after they added the Houston Texans as an expansion team. The NFC South was born and the Panthers and Saints remained rivals. Carolina would win five out of the next eight games, from 2002-2005. In 2006, the division got a little tougher. After not getting the contract he wanted in San Diego, quarterback Drew Brees signed a six year deal with New Orleans. Even though the future Hall of Fame quarterback has been a thorn in Carolina’s side, from 2006-2010 Carolina still beat New Orleans six out of ten times. Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith and a nasty Panthers’ defense made it nearly impossible for New Orleans to beat Carolina. Additionally, New Orleans didn’t have that great of a defense. In 2010, Carolina had a rookie quarterback named Jimmy Clausen starting. New Orleans swept Carolina that year, and Carolina went 2-14.

Cam Newton Era

In 2011, Cam Newton was drafted first overall for the Carolina Panthers. Since then, there have been many exciting, high scoring games and last second heroics by both teams. One particular last second win came when Cam led the Carolina offense down the field and threw a touchdown pass to Domenik Hixon with 23 seconds left to beat the Saints in 2013. The week 16 game helped Carolina win the division, and when that touchdown was scored, the stadium shook like never before.

Since Cam was drafted, the Panthers are 8-8 against the Saints. One of those wins came last year with quarterback Kyle Allen at the helm. The fact that these two teams are both 8-8 in regular season meetings in the last eight years, shows how hard they play against each other. Carolina has scored a total of 409 points in the Cam era and New Orleans has scored 434 points in the same time.

New Orleans has been consistently good for the last two years, as their records have been 11-5 in 2017 and 13-3 in 2018. However, it’s hard to gauge what they’ll do this year. Drew Brees is older, their defense is still suspect and they didn’t have the salary cap space to make necessary moves. Saints notable transactions:

Released S Kurt Coleman

Signed RB Latavius Murray

Signed TE Jared Cook

Signed DE Wes Horton

New Orleans didn’t have a lot of cap space to work with, but they also went to the playoffs last year with, essentially, this same team.

Barring major injuries, Carolina should have a decent shot against the Saints. Marty Hurney upgraded the Panthers significantly this offseason, and they look to build on the promising start they had in 2018, where they started the season 6-2. Carolina’s notable transactions:

Released CB Captain Munnerlyn

Re-signed S Eric Reid

Signed C Matt Paradis

Re-signed OT Daryl Williams

Signed DE/OLB Bruce Irvin

Signed WR Chris Hogan

Re-signed DT Kyle Love

Drafted DE/OLB Brian Burns

Drafted OT Greg Little

Signed WR Aldrick Robinson

Signed CB Javien Elliott

Signed DT Gerald McCoy

Signed S Tre Boston

That’s a huge pull for Hurney and the Panthers, and it shows that they’re in win-now mode. Hopefully, it translates into wins on the field in 2019.

What to Expect in 2019

The expectations for the Panthers in the upcoming season, is to split the series with the Saints. Both teams have the talent to sweep the other, but chances are, each will win at home. This is a hard fought battle every time these two teams hit the field, and it should be fun (and exhausting) to watch. Here is a comparison of key players for both teams:

CAROLINA

NEW ORLEANS

Cam

Newton

 ✓

Drew

Brees

Christian

McCaffrey

 = =

Alvin

Kamara

Curtis

Samuel

 ✓

Michael

Thomas

Greg

Olsen

 = =

Jared

Cook

Defense

 ✓

Defense

Cam Newton

VS

Drew Brees

In 14 games, Newton threw for 3,395 yards, 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 2018. It should be noted that Cam played injured from week nine to week fourteen.

In 15 games, Brees threw for 3,992 yards, 32 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 2018.

It’s hard to argue that Brees has had a Hall of Fame career. He has passed for 6,701 yards, 44 touchdowns and 20 interceptions for the Saints in 23 games against Carolina. Newton has 3,238 yards, 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 15 games against New Orleans in 15 games. Brees obviously has the edge over Newton in this one. Given Brees’ age and loss of production, as well as Cam being healthy, it could be a lot closer this year. 

Christian McCaffrey 

VS

Alvin Kamara

Last season, Christian McCaffrey had 219 carries for 1,098 yards (5.0 AVG per carry) and 7 touchdowns in 16 games. He also had 107 receptions for 867 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Last season, Alvin Kamara had 194 carries for 883 yards (4.6 AVG per carry) and 14 touchdowns in 15 games. He also had 81 receptions for 709 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Essentially, McCaffrey and Kamara are the same player with similar skill sets. McCaffrey had a better stat line, but he was also the featured back in Carolina, but Kamara shared carries with Mark Ingram. It remains to be seen if Kamara can be consistent with more of the workload. Latavius Murray could also take carries away from him. McCaffrey could possibly take the lead between the two players this season.

Curtis Samuel

VS

Michael Thomas

Last season, Samuel had 39 receptions for 494 touchdowns and 5 touchdowns in 13 games. He missed time due to injury and it took time for him to become more integrated into the offense when he returned.

Last season, Michael Thomas had 125 receptions for 1,405 yards and 9 touchdowns in 16 games.

Thomas wins this matchup based on his consistent performance and the fact that he has more receptions in his first 3 years than any other player in NFL history. Samuel is an unknown element due to his injury history. Samuel was the training camp MVP in the eyes of the coaching staff, but it remains to be seen how it will translate to the games. 

Greg Olsen

VS 

Jared Cook

Olsen, who has had trouble staying healthy the last two years, only had 27 receptions for 291 yards and 4 touchdowns last season, in 9 games. Hopefully, he can stay healthy and get back to his Pro Bowl level, but there are no guarantees.

Last season, Cook has 68 receptions for 896 yards and 6 touchdowns in 16 games with the Raiders.

Olsen and Cook are pretty even. Both players are good pass catchers, both are good blockers and both are good in the red zone. If Olsen were healthy, he’d be ahead of Cook, but the last two years show that Greg might be considered injury prone. The foot injury is tough to recover from. Hopefully Olsen’s foot will be strong and he can return to his Pro Bowl form. 

Panthers’ Defense

VS 

Saints’ Defense

Last season, Carolina’s defense was in the middle of the league, as they allowed the 15th most yards per game and the 19th most points per game.

Last season, New Orlean’s defense was also in the middle of the league, as they allowed the 14th most yards per game and also the 14th most points per game.

Carolina’s defense should be much improved this year, with the additions of Gerald McCoy, Bruce Irvin, Brian Burns, Tre Boston and Javien Elliott. Carolina will also have a multi-look defense instead of a base 4-3 like in year’s past, so it will be interesting to see how much of a pass rush will be generated this season. New Orleans did little to upgrade their defense. They’ll likely be middle of the pack again, but against Carolina, they will likely struggle. How can any defense account for McCaffrey, Newton, Samuel, Moore and Olsen? 

If Carolina stays healthy, they should at least split the series. There’s a possibility that Carolina could sweep if Brees’ play continues to decline. Mainly, it could happen if things continue to click for Carolina. This could be the year that the Panthers retake their thrones as the Kings of the South.

Cam Newton’s Career Path Resembles a Young John Elway

Will Call

 

The progression of Cam Newton’s career has been strikingly similar to legendary Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway. From a 50 foot view, both Newton and Elway entered the league as rocket armed dual threat quarterbacks with unlimited upside potential. But early in their careers, they experienced a roller coaster ride of peaks and valleys and were unable to capture that elusive Super Bowl title.

Early in his career, John Elway’s passing statistics were pedestrian as he ranked towards the middle of the pack in completion percentage and quarterback rating in comparison to his peers. John Elway’s ranking during his first 10 seasons appears below:

Completion % QB Rating
1984 14th 17th
1985 16th 17th
1986 14th 11th
1987 18th 11th
1988 16th 18th
1989 20th 17th
1990 6th 14th
1991 25th 19th
1992 20th 20th

During his first 10 seasons, Elway’s completion percentage only ranked in the top 10 one time. His quarterback rating consistently ranked in the middle of the pack. But when it came down to crunch time, Elway would find ways to will his team to victory with his strong arm and his running ability. During this same time frame, Elway recorded 21 4th quarter comebacks and 25 game winning drives. In 1987, John Elway won the league’s most valuable player (MVP) award and led the Broncos to the Super Bowl. However, his spectacular run had an ugly ending as the Denver Broncos would go on to get blown out in the Super Bowl by score of 42-10 to the Washington Redskins. In fact, Elway would go on to lose his first 3 Super Bowls including a 55-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers and a 39-20 to the New York Giants.

After his MVP season, Elway followed up with one of the worst seasons of his career, throwing 17 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. He would get back to the Super Bowl in 1989 but struggled going 10-26 in a 55-10 loss to the 49ers. People started to doubt whether Elway would ever win a Super Bowl during his career.

In 1993, his 11th season, Elway was frustrated and felt that his talents weren’t being fully utilized. They had a successful run under Dan Reeves but Elway wanted to open up the offense more. He grew tired of constantly being in close games and having to put the team on his back in the final minutes. The Broncos changed coaches and hired Wade Phillips as head coach and Jim Fassel as the offensive coordinator, the latter, who recruited Elway to Stanford University.  In 1993, Elway had his best season passing statically with over 4,000 yards, and a 63 percent completion percentage. This was the first time in his career that he threw over 60 percent and it was an 8 percent improvement over the previous season. Elway would go on to make the Associated Press’ 2nd team all pro team.

The Wade Philips era didn’t last long in Denver and in 1995, Mike Shanahan took over as the team’s new head coach. Also during this year, the Broncos added several key pieces to their roster and saw the emergence of key superstars. Shannon Sharpe was emerging as an elite tight end, they drafted Terrell Davis who would go on to make the Hall of Fame and drafted Rod Smith who would become a productive wide receiver for the team. All of the sudden, the Broncos had some supporting talent to surround Elway with and this took a lot of pressure off of him.

In 1996, Davis had a breakout season, and the Broncos finished the season as the 1st seed in the AFC playoffs. But they were upset by the Jacksonville Jaguars and once again, the critics came after Elway due to his inability to win the big games.

In 1997, Denver finally got it right. Davis ran for 1,700 yards, Elway threw a career high in touchdown passes and Denver would go on to upset Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl. Elway could finally add Super Bowl champion to his Hall of Fame resume. In 1998, the Broncos came back even stronger and Davis ran for 2,000 yards, Elway has another solid season and they dominated the Atlanta Falcons, winning back to back championships. Elway won MVP of the Super Bowl and retired on top of the game..

In his last few seasons, Elway’s passing statistics were noticeably better than in his earlier years. System changes, supporting talent and his maturity as an NFL quarterback allowed him to continue to evolve and eventually end his career with two Super Bowl rings.

This now brings us to Cam Newton. Like Elway, Newton was a dynamic playmaker at the quarterback position early in his career, despite putting up pedestrian passing statistics. However, his dynamic playmaking ability was what set him apart from his peers. Newton would also go on to win league MVP early in his career and lead his team to the Super Bowl, only to come up short. Following the Super Bowl loss, Newton would go on to have the worst season of his career in 2016 and only made the playoffs in one out of the following three seasons.

However, over the past couple of seasons, the Panthers made several key additions that could potentially help Cam Newton lead his team back to the promise land. The team added dynamic weapons including 2nd team all pro Christian McCaffrey and wide receivers Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore. In addition, the hiring of Norv Turner helped Newton post one of the best seasons of his career statistically as a passer as he posted a career high completion percentage of 67.9 percent  and was on pace to have a career high quarterback rating before his shoulder gave out late in the season.

Entering his ninth season, Newton will be surrounded with the most dynamic group of skill position players since he’s entered the league. With his second year in Norv Turner’s system, the pieces are in place for him to make another run at the Super Bowl title that has eluded him throughout his career.

The ups and downs of the career paths of Newton and Elway are strikingly similar. The question now becomes, can Newton overcome these adversities and finish his career with a championship, the same way Elway was able to?

Rush Review: Buffalo 27 Carolina 14

Preseason

The Carolina Panthers came out with low energy and poor execution on their first couple series on both sides of the ball to be down by 10 points very early in the first quarter and never recovered in a 27-14 home loss against the Buffalo Bills at Bank of America Stadium on this past Friday night.

It was announced an hour before kickoff that QB Cam Newton, TE Greg Olsen, RB Christian McCaffrey, LB Luke Kuechly and LB Shaq Thompson were sitting out this game to minimize unnecessary risks at this point during the preseason. This opened up opportunities for key rotational players and depth guys to make an impact. However, watching this game over again was bitter and head scratching as numerous fundamental mistakes repeated themselves. The remaining expected starters on offense and defense played the first three series yet could only muster a few good plays here and there as their on performance lacked intensity and effectiveness. This energy just seemed to carry over to the 2nd and 3rd units for the remainder of the game. All three phases of the team took their turns at disappointing the hometown crowd who had been eagerly awaiting a solid showing. The dominating playmaking that the Panthers had in the two joint practices leading up to this preseason game did not transfer over to the actual game.

Here are the typical statistical numbers from the game by ESPN:

Matchup
1st Downs 20 18
Passing 1st downs 12 9
Rushing 1st downs 6 5
1st downs from penalties 2 4
3rd down efficiency 6-13 2-13
4th down efficiency 0-0 1-2
Total Plays 63 66
Total Yards 373 258
Total Drives 11 12
Yards per Play 5.9 3.9
Passing 279 155
Comp-Att 21-31 22-42
Yards per pass 8.7 3.4
Interceptions thrown 1 1
Sacks-Yards Lost 1-1 3-30
Rushing 94 103
Rushing Attempts 31 21
Yards per rush 3.0 4.9
Red Zone (Made-Att) 2-4 1-2
Penalties 11-100 7-62
Turnovers 2 1
Fumbles lost 1 0
Interceptions thrown 1 1
Defensive / Special Teams TDs 1 0
Possession 31:40 28:20
Here are the stats that The 4 Man Rush are tracking on offensive personnel groupings and defensive personnel alignments:
12 personnel (1 RB 2 TE 2 WR) was used on five plays with two runs and three passes. QB was under center four times and in shotgun one time.
11 personnel (1 RB 1 TE 3 WR) was used on 43 plays with seven runs and 36 passes. QB was under center two times and in shotgun 41 times.
21 personnel (2 RB 1 TE 2 WR) was used on eight plays with four runs and four passes. QB was under center seven times and in shotgun one time.
22 personnel (2 RB 2 TE 1 WR) was used on two plays which both was runs. QB was under center on both plays.
3-4 base personnel (3 defensive linemen 4 linebackers 4 defensive backs) was used on 19 defensive snaps.
4-2 nickel personnel (4 defensive linemen 2 linebackers 5 defensive backs) was used on 39 defensive snaps.
#WhatARush #KeepPounding